CBDC herding
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There is a potential future out there which I want you to be aware of but not fearful of regarding digital currency. But first I want to introduce the herding method I and others see.
1) Problem 2) Reaction 3) Solution
Here’s the future in easy to grasp terms. But first Let’s see this in the past.
PAST —
Problem: Virus (fear)
Reaction: lockdown, masking, 6 feet (more fear)
Solution: Vacine (relief from the fear)
FUTURE —
Problem: Banks going under, confidence in money is lowered (fear)
Reaction: Bailouts Mergers 6 big National banks left (enhanced fear)
Solution: New CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) Issued (relief from the fear)
A problem is created. An emotional reaction is solicited and maybe even enhanced to create fear. Then a solution is provide. Saving you from the fear. The creators of the problem now get to act like saviors. Remember this and see if you see other patterns fitting into this 1,2,3 sequence from authority structures.
Now onto the meat of the possible crypto future. Just remember no future is manifested exactly as one envisions it because there are too many fingers in the pie. Too many cooks in the kitchen. Too many consciousnesses involved in the solution.
Here’s what Citi bank put out in their March issue of Global Perspectives and Solutions Publication. (find link here)
we believe we are approaching an inflection point, where the promised potential of blockchain will be realized and be measured in billions of users and trillions of dollars in value. Successful adoption will be when blockchain has a billion-plus users who do not even realize they are using the technology. This is likely to be driven by the adoption of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) by large central banks as well as tokenized assets in gaming and blockchain-based payments on social media. By 2030, up to $5 trillion of CBDCs could be circulating in major economies in the world, half or which could be linked to distributed ledger technology. Tokenization of financial and real-work assets could be the killer use case driving blockchain breakthrough with tokenization expected to grow by a factor of 80x in private markets and reach up to almost $4 trillion in value by 2030.”
Remember the Future never looks exactly like I think. But If I had any second thoughts about holding onto crypto, this just ended it. In fact, if I had one, I would even convert my emergency cash bag to crypto now too.
If the banks are going introduce a CBDC on the back end. I’ll be forced into using their digital dollar. So I want to put as much of my value into something that is not in their system (non-gov’t crypto).
But clark, crypto is backed by nothing, while fiat is back by the gov’t. Having watched our gov’t these past years I want as little to do with them as I can and what ever horse they are backing. Since they backed the internet I’ve not seen anything they do providing me personally, with benefits.
And consider this, crypto is backed by the belief that software code can run money without gov’t backing. Just like our founding fathers believed they could run their spiritual lives without Gov’t backing. We now have the opportunity/possibility to run by our own currency without the Gov’t. Obviously, they are not going to like that (understatement).
Wait, that’s a pretty big shift you are predicting. Nope, you read the above from citi bank, they are predicting it not me. I’m just trying to sidestep being herded into their CBDC solution.
The good news is the CBDC will make a killer app to use their CBDC and infrastructure to match. All in the name of connivence to get people to use it, like it, and support it.
I’ll use it only as I have to. I hope to be voting with my feet by participating in non-gov’t crypto as much as I can even if it is not widely used. And eve while it is condemned widely in the media.
If you think crypto had bad publicity before, … just wait until the CBDC marketing push comes out. People will think crypto is of the devil and people holding it are devil spawn.
Remember how unAmerican it was to be vaccine resistant? Even having doubts was considered contributing to the problem because it could encourage others to not participate. There was no tolerance for discussion or fat finding, to even question the talking head narrative. I expect CBDC’s to be a rinse and repeat.
ADVICE: hold on to what you have AND do not tell others. If you do have crypto shut up and be prepared to be unAmerican. To be shamed and seen as part of the problem.
So what timeline is this on? When will CBDC see the light of day? This year or next year. I’m expecting it this year but see how it could be delayed until next year too (the rollout could take longer).
Citibank says 6–8 years “Although we think mass adoption could still be six to eight years away, momentum on adoption has positively shifted as governments, large institutions, and corporations have moved from investigating the benefits of tokenization to trials and proofs of concept.
But I don’t think it will be that long. I think they say that to put your concerns to rest.
TOKENization:
Citibank again… “Almost anything of value can be tokenized and tokenization of financial and real-world assets could be the “killer use-case” blockchain needs to drive a breakthrough. We forecast $4 trillion to $5 trillion of tokenized digital securities and $1 trillion of distributed ledger technology (DLT)-based trade finance volumes by 2030.”
It is like they are going to build the Tokenized economy for us before they fail. I say Thank you, to the old failing system for upgrading the infrastructure for us to use with non-gov’t crypto post the failing.
Fail? How will they fail? What will cause them to fail?
No proof, just conjecture. No, because I think it will be like the virus petering out dispite all the fear mongering to the contrary. So I’m expecting their CBDC to do the same. Fade away.
Likely due to inept gov’t abilities. They are not SW experts, although they will hire them. They can not move fast. The people will resist. Like the anti vaxxers before the non-compliance will grow ever larger until their project fails.
I have no proof but I have worked directly for and with the gov’t when I was a Washington D.C. beltway bandit (network engineer). First hand experience showed me how they excel at telling others what to do. And have no proficiency (zero ability) at doing.
But won’t the banks be doing it for them? Won’t the contractors be doing all the actual work? YES. My bad. Wrong explanation. Wrong thinking. But a pattern is clear, people are losing trust in the gov’t.
Here we need a quick visit to the past. Once people had bibles in their own hands due to the printing press, they no longer needed priests nor gov’t to tell them how to interpret the bible. I believe, Crypto will be the same way. No proof just belief. Once people have the ability to run their own currency without the gov’t they will. People will continue to lose trust in authority structures and authoritarians. This is the maturation of humanity. The evolution of a collective consciousness.
So I conclude non-gov’t crypto will rise. And CBDC’s will fade away.
But isn’t his all a little premature? Only 3–4 banks had problems. And the solutions did not rock the economy.
No, the bailouts were more than the FDIC insurance had in total.
“The Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) balance increased by $2.8 billion to $128.2 billion in 2023.” (find link here)
$175 billion was used just for SVB (Silicon Valley Bank) that’s 50 billion more than the $128 billion on hand and just one bank.
“Under the plan announced by federal regulators, $175 billion in deposits will be backstopped by the federal government.” (find link here)
ASnd then they created the BTFP to cover that. The Bank Term Funding Program is currently only a 25 billion dollar fund. Which will probably be increased as needed. (find link here)
The question become how long can you print money out of thin air before people don’t value it. This problem is not so much a problem inside America as outside America. At some point other gov’t/countries will say they do not want our $$$ because when you create it out of thin air all the time it has no value. you can not print your way to prosperity.
This is all over simplified. And I’m not equipped to answer all the doubts. And the future always plays out different than I think it will. So my last try is this.
There are many more banks in trouble but are not seen as in trouvle just yet. 186 by this account. https://nypost.com/2023/03/18/nearly-200-banks-could-fail-the-same-way-svb-did-study/
With the fed raising interest rates to fight inflation. That reduces the money supply. Once called quantitative tightening. Then printing money to bail out the troubled banks. That increases the money supply. Also called quantitative easing. tightening and easing at the same time.
Fighting inflation so the people do not revolt (raising interest rates). Printing money so that the banking system does not fail. So that the people do not become mob.
This is like driving a car with your foot on both the gas and brake at the same time. Something is going to brake sooner or later.
This is my opinion. You do what you feel is right for you. I’m not trusting on the coming CBDC to save us (but I’ll use it to survive). I’ll support my community of friends because we are stronger together. My community is my security.
I think non-gov’t crypto is a better place to hide. Consider theta.
